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Monday, March 17, 2008

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Crash of Stock market
A stock market is a market a way to invest in companies who need capital to expand business . Stock market drives economy and companies who raise capital use that to expand business .In economies like India where growth is about 8-9% a good company was giving growth of approx. 20-30% and much more if you invested in mid cap ..

But the recent fall is contrariety to the definition of stock market. Stock market lost over 30-35% with in few days . This fall is contrary to the objective of stock market . A person invest in stock market to grow his/her money but such falls shatter the objective of investment .

Why it happened ?
Stock market is made to grow your money but not to earn money as trader . Recent surge in stock market has attracted lot of peoples . Such surge is market made it market of Gamble and Greed . Gamble and Greed both are bad things and bad things always ends bad . So recent fall of stock market is a lesson for peoples that stock market is not made to trade or earn daily living . Stock market is made for peoples who invest and want to be a part of growth of county ..

Why stock market should be fallen ?
Now it seems little foolish but i do strongly believe stock market should be fallen when it was moving up . I have invested huge part of my life time earnings in stock market and recent fall was shocking and shattered my budget too . But then i started thinking with cool mind what was going to happen if stock market keep moving up . If stock market did not fall companies were keep getting huge capital for expansion .That if lets assume what was going to happen if sensex gone to 50000 . Of course everyone was going to earn but have you ever looked at negative side of surging market . If that have happened every company have raised money to expand business . That is companies had more money for growth . But during growth we forget the side effects of growth .If everyone was rich everyone had car resulting huge pollution , more factories more pollution ,During growth we forget we have to protect our environmentfirst . if everyone use energy like rich peoples does no one can save this earth . climate changes like green house affect , global warming was going to destroy earth . By slowing growth it just gave us chance to live . Now our leaders , corporates should learn that money is nothing , its just paper , the most valuable thing on this earth is humans. So they should grow but they should not destroy water resources , they should not harm Eco system , they should keep global warming in mind , these all are so dangerous if not kept in mind may destroy whole human being .Also surge in market was going to make rich peoples more rich resulting surge in inflation and property prices , As when economy grows peoples have more money (because Fii's were pouring dollars in India and RBI have to print similar amount of rupees to fii's , resulting excess liquidity in country , resulting inflatory pressure) . In this peoples few peoples who were corporates /share holders /tech peoples started living luxurious life and life of middle class /poor peoples were worsen because property prices moved so sharply that middle families were not able to buy a small house . Such social difference makes few peoples life good but worse life of lot of peoples resulting crime and hate in society .So growth with no limits and ethics is worse than no growth at all .So you were just drinking sweet poison . So i request world leaders and corporates that don't run behind money /greed (so called growth) , but give this growth a direction to make this earth a better place to live .

So i do believe in Geeta's word " Jo hua aacha hua " (watever happens , happens for good) .

Wat should i do , my money is stuck in stock market ..?
" Har Gum ke baad Kushi hai , Har kushi ke baad bhi kushi hai" , Have that philosophy in life ,whatever god did for you is best for you ,
But i will suggest the following strategy (being practical) .
When index was at 21000 , there were stocks which were quoting at high valuations even some were quoting at P/E of 100 or more . (P/E is price to earning ration , that if a company earns rs. 20 per share and price of share is rs. 500 that means its at P(500)/e(20)=25 , A typical stock with good growth should not have p/e of over 25 , exception is company where chances of earning growth is huge) . Now when index was at 21000 everyone was over positive about market , if a share price should be at 100 peoples paid 150-200 for it , now market is at 15000 and peoples are over negative now , that if if a share price should be at rs 100 its quoting at 60-70 now . I understand this positive /negative environment is created on basis of circumstances like (growth /govt stability/companies growth /wars/recession or whatever). But i do believe stock market always overreact on both sides negative or positive . So i believe recent fall is just an overreaction on negative side just like recent surge in stock market was overreaction on positive side . Companies are operating in the way they were operating (most are) . So if they are not worried about prices of stocks then why you are . Retail companies did not close down its offices , banks did not close down, Everything is same , however earning may be affected a little but it does not mean stock market is dead ..

So keep following this in mind while investing in future .
1. Never buy/sell in panic
2. Do invest only surplus amount (amount which is excess)
3.Invest in all assets (like stock ,property ,gold , fixed deposits)
4. Don't get attracted by short term gains
5. Always invest for long term don't trade or try to make short term gains
6.Invest on regular basis ,don't invest whole amount on same time
So follow these basic investment rules in future investment ....

Well to be precise here is Wat i am going to do now .
I believe market is over sold at some extent . So i will start picking stocks on monthly basis that is i will invest certain amount every month to pick cheap stocks without worrying about previous holdings (which are in my demat) . In simple terms if you can save rs. 10k per month for investment , do invest rs. 3 k in stocks , 3-4k in FDR's , get some gold or hold some cash whatever ...
don't invest whole amount in stocks and invest only surplus amount with long term view only


Warning , This is my personal views about stock market , i am not a financial consultant or hold no right to advice ... These are my personals views so use this article at your own risk